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The vice president of the Andalusian Government, and Minister of Tourism, Regeneration, Justice and Local Administration, Juan Marín, has presented a report to the Governing Council on the possible evolution of tourism in the community by 2020, as of the closing of markets and stoppage of activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the new action plan that has been designed to recover the strength of destiny as soon as possible.
The Ministry of Tourism has developed three possible scenarios with the caution that any study entails in circumstances of enormous uncertainty in an unprecedented situation.
The first analysis proposes a rapid recovery at the time when the free movement of people for leisure purposes is once again allowed to reach previous levels in a short period of time. The estimate in this scenario puts the arrival of tourists at 23.1 million (9.3 million less than in 2019), which would imply a decrease of 28.8% compared to last year. It would mean returning to similar levels in 2013 and 2014.
In this context, the lower tourist activity would imply a drop in income of 6.7 billion euros and the putting at risk of 69,000 jobs in the sector.
In an intermediate scenario, the studies of the Ministry show an early recovery of the national market and an activation of the international one under the same guidelines registered in other tourist destinations after the episode of health crisis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia in 2003. With this forecast, the estimate is that in 2020 18.6 million tourists will arrive in Andalusia (13.9 million less than in 2019), which would mean a decrease of 42.8% compared to last year.
This decline, as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, would imply a loss in tourism revenue of 10,000 million euros. A brake that in the sector would put at risk some 103,000 jobs.
The most negative scenario raises a recovery of both the national and international markets at the same rate as in the SARS episode in 2003. Under this analysis, the estimate of tourist arrivals for 2020 would be 14 million (18.47 less than in 2019 ), almost 60% less than last year. The decline in activity would imply 13.3 billion euros less income and the putting at risk of 137,000 jobs in the sector.
The Ministry of Tourism has redesigned its 2020 Action Plan to be able to tackle a crash plan against the coronavirus crisis. The great objective is to achieve the greatest possible impact in the target markets with the intention of helping to reactivate the Andalusian tourist activity, thus supporting the thousands of tourist companies existing in Andalusia and, therefore, the thousands of employees of this business fabric, made up mostly of SMEs and micro-SMEs.
Another objective, especially important from the point of view of tourism marketing, is to reposition the Andalusia brand in the different issuing markets, placing the region as a preferred and priority place over its competitors. In short, to re-implement destination marketing measures that help improve the positioning, knowledge and strength of the Andalusia destination in the imagination of potential tourists from the main source markets.
On the other hand, Andalucía Lab, the tourism innovation centre of the Andalusian Government’s Tourism Department, has launched a series of initiatives to continue its consulting and training offer to companies and professionals in the sector during this period of tourist inactivity. Currently, more than a thousand applications have been received to participate in these activities electronically, which take place between March 23 and April 30.
Finally, the Minister of Tourism has released to the Governing Council the list of 119 establishments offered by the Andalusian Federation of Hotels and Tourist Accommodation to be reused as hospitals, if necessary. By provinces there are eight in Almería, 18 in Cádiz, 10 in Córdoba, four in Granada, two in Huelva, seven in Jaén, 14 in Málaga and 56 in Sevilla.
